Early Parliamentary Elections in Serbia: A Unique Opportunity to Free a Captured State
Author: Dr Svetluša Surová (Minority Issues Research Institute- MIRI)
"Translated and republished with the permission of the publisher. Translated by Martin Smolinský, MS TRANS SERVICES s.r.o."
Suggested Citation: Svetluša Surová, "Early Parliamentary Elections in Serbia: A Unique Opportunity to Free a Captured State," Minority Issues Research Institute, October 22, 2026,
Serbia is set to hold early parliamentary elections on 25 October 2026, an election that the student movement has been calling for since last year. This represents a unique opportunity for pro-democratic forces to free a captured state and create the conditions for a transition towards a genuine liberal democracy.
On 9 September 2026, the President of the Republic of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, dissolved the National Assembly elected on 17 December 2023 and called parliamentary elections for 25 October. The decree dissolving parliament and the decision to call early parliamentary elections were signed after the president received a reasoned proposal from the Serbian government. Specifically, Prime Minister Đuro Macut proposed dissolving parliament; the government approved his proposal, and the president subsequently accepted it.
The government's and president's decisions to call early elections came under pressure from protests led by students, as well as by the broader public, which mobilized against the Vučić regime following the collapse of the roof canopy at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024 that claimed sixteen lives.
The announcement of early elections constitutes another success for the protesting students and fulfils their political demand, dating back to May 2025, for the dissolution of parliament. At the same time, the elections also provide the current regime with an opportunity to attempt to retain power by all available means, both legal and less scrupulous.
President Vučić strategically stepped down from office in order to participate in the electoral campaign as the leader of the electoral list "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia", nominated by the Serbian Progressive Party (in Serbian Srpska napredna stranka, SNS), of which he is a member of the party presidency. This move creates an opportunity for him to achieve the political goal of securing another high constitutional office, since victory by the list he leads would likely return him to the post of prime minister. Vučić would have been unable to seek re-election as president in 2027 because his second presidential term would have expired that year. The Constitution of the Republic of Serbia limits the president to a maximum of two terms, whereas there is no constitutional limitation on the number of terms a person may serve as prime minister.
This means that the forthcoming parliamentary elections are of vital importance to all participants in the electoral contest: the governing establishment, the opposition, and the students, whose electoral list has emerged as the strongest challenger to Vučić's ballot. For Serbian citizens, these are among the most important elections since the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević's authoritarian regime.
Why These Elections Matter
The forthcoming early elections may determine whether Serbia continues its democratic decline or whether conditions can be created for a comprehensive democratic transformation of the country. Following the overthrow of the Milošević regime in 2000, democratic reforms were initiated, but the process of transforming Serbia into a fully functioning liberal democracy has never been completed.
Until 2020, Freedom House classified Serbia as a partially consolidated democracy. As democratic institutions and freedoms continued to deteriorate during 2019, Serbia recorded its lowest democracy score since 2001 in the Nations in Transit assessment and was consequently reclassified as a transitional or hybrid regime.
Today, Serbia cannot be regarded as a free country. According to Freedom House's most recent annual assessment of political rights and civil liberties, Serbia is classified as "partly free". The organization notes that, in recent years, the Serbian Progressive Party has steadily undermined political rights and civil liberties while exerting pressure on independent media, political opponents and civil society organizations. Serbia has remained in the category of partly free countries for the past six years.
Similarly, Freedom House's assessment of internet freedom classified Serbia as "partly free" in 2025. This rating is linked, among other factors, to the authorities' harsh response to the protests that followed the Novi Sad railway station tragedy.
In the 2026 World Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders, Serbia ranked 104th out of 180 countries and territories, placing it last among the forty countries of the European Union and Balkan region covered by the index. In recent years, particularly during the protest movement, journalists have frequently become targets of attacks by members of the ruling elite led by Aleksandar Vučić, whom Reporters Without Borders has labelled a "predator of press freedom".
These early parliamentary elections, which arose from student and civic protests, have the potential to reshape Serbia's political landscape on 25 October and redistribute power within the democratic camp. Prodemocratic forces have a rare opportunity to defeat the ruling establishment. Yet Aleksandar Vučić is fully aware of this reality. Although he now formally holds no constitutional office and is "merely" a member of the Serbian Progressive Party leadership, he remains the central political figure in the country.
In practice, Vučić concentrates political power in his own hands and exercises control over state institutions through his party and governing coalition, particularly over the coercive apparatus of the state. His regime benefits from a powerful propaganda machine, as well as considerable influence over public broadcasters, providing a significant advantage over political competitors during election campaigns. Furthermore, numerous international organizations, domestic watchdogs and independent Serbian media outlets have documented efforts by the regime to influence, and at times unlawfully interfere with, electoral processes. Consequently, these decisive elections will take place under highly challenging conditions.
Unequal and Irregular Electoral Conditions
Reports by Freedom House and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) have repeatedly pointed to serious violations of electoral standards in Serbia, including vote-buying, multiple voting, voter surveillance, and pressure on public-sector employees to support governing parties.
In 2024, following Serbia's parliamentary and local elections held at the end of 2023, the European Parliament adopted a resolution concluding that the elections had fallen short of international standards for free and fair elections due to the "persistent and systematic abuse of institutions and media by incumbents in order to gain an unfair and undue advantage". The resolution referred to reports of widespread and systematic electoral fraud that compromised the integrity of the elections and called into question the fairness of the electoral environment. It highlighted allegations from Belgrade, where so-called "phantom voters" from other municipalities and neighbouring countries had allegedly been registered at addresses where they did not reside. Reports also described the organised transportation of voters from abroad by buses arranged by the ruling party. The resolution further referred to allegations of unlawful manipulation of voter registers and electoral rights and to organised attacks by Serbian officials against election observers, including Members of the European Parliament. Owing to these serious breaches of the rule of law, the European Parliament called for the suspension of certain EU funding to Serbia.
The Venice Commission and OSCE/ODIHR also documented other unlawful practices in their 2022 joint assessment of Serbia's electoral framework. These included voter intimidation, systemic deficiencies in the organization of polling stations resulting in overcrowding, frequent violations of ballot secrecy and instances of family voting.
The overall situation surrounding the exercise of electoral rights also disproportionately affects minority communities due to issues related to identity, socio-economic status, vulnerability, and inequality. For example, members of the Albanian national minority in southern Serbia have reported practices whereby state authorities classified their residential addresses as "inactive" in official databases, making it impossible to renew identity documents necessary for participation in elections. In my own research, I have consistently pointed to shortcomings in the election of minority national councils and to the controversial use of ethnic data in policymaking and the implementation of minority rights in Serbia.
In connection with the forthcoming parliamentary elections, unprecedented obstacles have also emerged regarding the establishment of polling stations abroad.
Making Voting from Abroad More Difficult
The Republic Electoral Commission approved 93 polling stations abroad on the basis of a proposal submitted by Serbia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which had initially proposed 90 locations before subsequently amending its proposal. A record number of Serbian citizens living abroad registered to vote at diplomatic and consular missions. Nevertheless, polling stations were not opened in several locations where voting had been possible in previous elections. Citizens will not be able to vote, among other places, in Sofia, Bucharest, Bratislava, Istanbul, Ankara and Dubai. The Commission also decided that voting abroad must take place simultaneously with voting in Serbia. These arrangements significantly worsen conditions for citizens residing abroad, as many are now required to travel considerable distances or cast their ballots during the night or early morning hours because voting times are determined according to Central European Time.
Representatives of the student electoral list protested in front of the Commission's headquarters and even filed formal objections regarding both the designation of polling stations abroad and the voting schedule. The Commission rejected both objections.
Although the Commission approved the polling stations proposed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, several members publicly criticised the decision and voted against it, arguing that it would jeopardise the voting rights of a large number of Serbian citizens residing abroad. These members also stated that the Ministry had failed to explain how it had compiled the list of overseas polling stations.
Had there been sufficient political will within the Commission, it could have designated additional polling stations abroad on its own initiative, since the law empowers the Republic Electoral Commission to determine overseas polling stations, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs merely submits proposals. Some members of the Commission nevertheless maintain that it is legally bound by the Ministry's proposal.
Serbian Citizens Will Not Be Able to Vote in Bratislava
The polling station at the Embassy of Serbia in Bratislava was reportedly not opened because of construction work and a lack of technical conditions. According to publicly available information, however, the number of voters registered for that location was several times higher than in previous elections, when the polling station operated normally. Article 9 of the guidelines governing the determination of polling stations specifies that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should establish polling stations serving between 100 and 2,500 voters, subject to the condition "where possible". Such wording is sufficiently broad to justify almost any decision. In the case of Bratislava, this appears to have been exactly what occurred.
The day after the Republic Electoral Commission decided not to designate Bratislava as an overseas polling station, the Embassy of Serbia in Slovakia published a notice on its website announcing that it would be "temporarily closed to visitors due to necessary repair works", which the embassy described as preventive and safety-related measures. Prior to that announcement, the embassy had actively encouraged citizens to register to vote at its premises. By the time this article was finalized, that webpage could no longer be located on the embassy's website.
Even if voting at the embassy had genuinely been impossible, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs could have requested the consent of the host state to organize voting outside diplomatic or consular premises. Whether such a request was made remains unknown. Requests for information regarding voting abroad have also been submitted to both the Republic Electoral Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but no responses had been received by the time of writing.
Let us now turn to the organization of Serbia's parliamentary elections, the competing electoral lists, and the main political contenders.
Basic Facts About the Election and the Main Contenders
In the early elections on 25 October, Serbian citizens will elect 250 members of parliament for a four-year term through free, direct, secret, and personal voting. Serbia constitutes a single nationwide electoral district, and seats are allocated under a proportional representation system. The electoral threshold is 3 per cent of the total vote, having been reduced from 5 per cent in early 2020. Electoral lists representing national minorities are exempt from the threshold requirement, although they must still reach the so-called "natural threshold" necessary to secure representation. A total of eighteen electoral lists with 2,418 candidates are running in the elections. Seven lists contain the full complement of 250 candidates, while nine lists hold official minority-list status.
The principal contenders are the list "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia", representing a coalition led by the Serbian Progressive Party, and the "Student List - Students Win" supported by civic initiatives and parts of the opposition. The ruling Socialist Party of Serbia is contesting the election under the slogan "Ivica Dačić - A Factor of Stability". The party, once led by Slobodan Milošević, has remained a participant in successive governments and has held ministerial positions in every coalition with the Serbian Progressive Party. Opposition parties have united under the electoral list "European Serbia - Marinika Tepić - Zdravko Ponoš". Various right-wing and left-wing political groups are also participating. In addition, nine electoral lists represent Bosniak, Hungarian, Russian, Albanian, Greek, and Slovak national minorities.
Prospects for Democratic Forces
According to a June 2026 survey conducted by CRTA (Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability) and Stanford University's Democracy Action Lab (DAL), 44.9 per cent of decided voters would support the Student List, while 35.7 per cent would vote for the Serbian Progressive Party and 3.8 per cent for the Socialist Party of Serbia. No other political actors in the survey would have crossed the electoral threshold.
A more recent poll conducted by the agency Faktor Plus, which declined to disclose either the sponsor or funding source of the survey, tells a different story and favours the Vučić list. According to this poll, which should be viewed with caution, "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia" would secure 48.6 per cent of the vote, "Student List - Students Win" 37.1 per cent, "Ivica Dačić - A Factor of Stability" 4.9 per cent, and "European Serbia - Marinika Tepić - Zdravko Ponoš" 3.6 per cent. Other lists would remain below the threshold.
More credible and up-to-date polling data from established agencies will still be needed before definitive conclusions can be drawn. Until then, it remains important to mobilize undecided and politically apathetic voters, since higher turnout generally does not favour the Vučić list.
Hope Despite All Obstacles
The elections will take place in an exceptionally tense and polarized environment. Democratic protests led by students and citizens calling for political change have frequently been accompanied by violence from supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, at times involving individuals with criminal backgrounds and often occurring in full view of an inactive police force. Conversely, in some instances the authorities have employed excessive force to suppress demonstrations.
While international organizations often refer diplomatically to "irregularities", "procedural shortcomings" or "electoral deficiencies" when discussing elections in Serbia, these practices amount to unfair and, in many cases, unlawful conduct. They not only provide advantages to governing parties but also raise serious questions regarding the legality and legitimacy of the electoral process itself.
Despite these difficult circumstances, the upcoming elections offer the possibility that a victory by prodemocratic forces could bring an end to the current regime's capture of the state and complete Serbia's democratic transition.
For this reason, it is essential that every voter exercise their fundamental democratic right and participate in the election. Should voters witness irregularities or unlawful practices, they should promptly report them to the competent authorities or to CRTA (Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability), which monitors all phases of the electoral process.
General Information and Interesting Facts
On October 25, 2026, the citizens of Serbia will elect 250 members of parliament for a four-year term in free, direct, secret and personal elections. The President of Serbia can dissolve the National Assembly based on a reasoned government proposal. In Slovakia, the government has no constitutional authority to propose dissolution to the parliament.
These early parliamentary elections are the eleventh early and the fifteenth in the wake of the establishment of a pluralist system in Serbia.
Elections are held within a single nationwide electoral district, and parliamentary seats are allocated using a proportional system. The electoral threshold for candidate lists in Serbia is 3% of the total number of voters. This threshold was reduced from 5% to 3% in early 2020. For political parties representing national minorities, there is no threshold.
If no electoral list receives 3% of the votes cast, all lists that received any votes are eligible to participate in the allocation of seats.
In municipalities and cities where the languages of national minorities are used for official purposes, ballot papers will be printed in those languages in addition to Serbian in the Cyrillic script. This year, ballots will be produced in 29 different language versions.
A total of 6,450,523 voters are eligible to cast their ballots in the early parliamentary elections, while the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia estimated the population at 6,549,901 as of 2025.
The leader of an electoral list may, but is not required to, be a candidate for parliament on that same list. The same individual cannot lead two different electoral lists, nor can they lead one list while simultaneously appearing as a candidate on another. At least 40% of the candidates on the electoral list must belong to the underrepresented gender; specifically, for every five candidates in the sequence on the list, there must be three individuals of one gender and two of the other.
Sara Valentik, a political scientist, civic activist during the protests, and field worker from Báčsky Petrovec, also appears on the student electoral list, holding the 18th position. The Minority Issues Research Institute organized a discussion with her and Milina Zima, a co-organizer of a photography exhibition in Báčsky Petrovec, regarding the anti-government protests in Serbia from a minority perspective. You can watch the recording here.
Comments